3 0 obj stream And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don’t–and, most importantly, can’t–know. PDF, Previous post: The Crossing (Harry Bosch), © 2015 Free Kindle Books – All Rights Reserved September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. endobj Read More: Follow Twitter | Review sách hay | Top 10 Su That | Học Forex, The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck: A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Old School (Book 10), The Ultimate Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Uncle Vanya: Scenes from Country Life in Four Acts, The Wars of the Jews Or The History of the Destruction of Jerusalem. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. <> Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. epub, We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal Or, as he puts it, “History does not crawl, it jumps.” Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls “Mediocristan,” while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of “Extremistan.”, In full disclosure, I’m a long admirer of Taleb’s work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. . free books online, In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, “all swans are white” had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. mobi, (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility ebook epub/pdf/mobi/azw3. . . 4 0 obj He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. This site does not store any files on its server. . . “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate, “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the “millionaire next door,” when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. download free ebook, He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. PDF | On Feb 1, 2008, Gene Callahan published Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable | Find, read and … Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. free ebook, The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. This is an interesting read which is very abstract in nature. <>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/MediaBox[ 0 0 595.2 841.92] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>> A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. endobj . We’re still doing it. “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times 1 0 obj “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it’s practically useless. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. ... Nassim Nicholas Taleb Two contrasting summaries: Summary 1. <> The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable. –Chris Anderson, How to download eBooks: Click Download, wait 5 seconds and Click Skip This Ad to download ebook, Keywords: In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. <>>> Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb. AZW3, Praise for The Black Swan, “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London), “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall–they are the real distorting prisms of human nature.” Chief among them: “Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature.” Now consider the typical stock market report: “Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production.” Sigh. endobj The book has made me think in a very abstract way in looking at past events that happened and trying to work out if we could We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”. “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. %���� The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. “Engaging . Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? x��]s�6�=3��7� ��G'�ۉ��\�\�>d� [���%��\_��a��zs�D$��~����~s���g�ޝ������*�zr���?l�8����>��������n���ޟgg�oߜ\�LJQ�����72+��d֖�(�LBv����"��?>�}�u��d��z�惞���7J���*%�FO��J%�:{Z�}��?�ݑ� ��]�����_g2X�?�Ȳu�af�����,;�|�����Yq����6��w�g9c\��J���Z��e�*����ݭ�f���s5���l ?��z�-�粝}��٫~��� ���H�U!�e�e��_g?f�Y�(�Y8c���V�2_����l������Q�Z" { ��=�7@� �8�n��������>����y�沘m53��y�ӯ�N.��j&`^����E�sT�c;Q�#��RȈ��x�r���q� ��L����R�J4�Mrl�E��^�ƪZ��w��M)���V�>�xPwZo�U^:%������R��I�{`j2mjՄ���vR�_�ͨ�ΫYʉ�v�^�{;{Z���ՏZA�w�t��G������&�>>m4�5���H1���Gj��rҿ�R����� nk�4��/`g�:���0�r��U�_���|y�FY����hh��4���oٓT[��`r�c�DOK����`wz�d�~ҳ���m�ϷS�Ej*��x���Ub���^ѵ��B���a��7���_�7��w`. %PDF-1.5 We only index and link to content provided by other sites. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. easy to dip into.”—Financial Times
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